Multiyear Transmission Expansion Planning Under Hydrological Uncertainty

Abstract

Hydrothermal systems should be characterized by a transmission-intensive nature in order to deal with climatic phenomena which, for example, can determine dry conditions in one region while there are large rainfalls in another one. Thus, the grid must be robust to deal with the different export/import patterns among regions and accommodate several economic dispatches. This paper describes a multiyear probabilistic Transmission Expansion Planning, TEP, model that uses Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO) to deal with the uncertainties present in hydrothermal systems. The numerical simulations were conducted using the IEEE 24 bus reliability test system in which the planning horizon is 10 years and the load growth is 2,5% per year. The results highlight the importance of adopting expansion strategies to reduce the risk and consider the inflow variations in this type of systems.