Evaluation of the uncertainties used to perform flow security assessment: A real case study

Abstract

In this paper, a validation framework is proposed to evaluate the quality of uncertainty forecasts, when used to perform branch flow security assessment. The consistency between probabilistic forecasts and observations and the sharpness of the uncertainty forecasts is verified with advanced metrics widely used in weather prediction. The evaluation is completed by assessing the added value of exploiting uncertainty forecasts over the TSO current practices of using deterministic forecasts. For electric power industry, this proposed validation framework provides a way to compare the performance among alternative uncertainty models, when used to perform security assessment in power systems. The quality of the proposed metrics is illustrated and validated on historical data of the French transmission system. © 2019 IEEE.