A fuzzy dynamic programming approach for evaluation of expansion distribution cost in uncertainty environments

Abstract

This paper presents a new Fuzzy Dynamic Programming model that calculates the optimum solution of problems with uncertainties in data defined by fuzzy sets. The result includes the determination of an Intrinsic Risk Threshold of the solution. Extrinsic Risk Thresholds may also be set by a Decision Maker, in order to obtain more robust solutions. The technique is applied to the calculation of Distribution System expansion costs to serve the objectives of a Regulatory Authority (Regulator) in fixing levels of efficiency, targets and penalties to a regulated market.