Finding interesting contexts for explaining deviations in bus trip duration

Abstract

In this paper we study the deviation of bus trip duration and its causes. Deviations are obtained by comparing scheduled times against actual trip duration and are either delays or early arrivals. We use distribution rules, a kind of association rules that may have contin- uous distributions on the consequent. Distribution rules allow the sys- tematic identification of particular conditions, which we call contexts, under which the distribution of trip time deviations differs significantly from the overall deviation distribution. After identifying specific causes of delay the bus company operational managers can make accurate ad- justments to the timetables without disrupting the service.