Dealing with Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty

Abstract

In power systems with a large integration of wind power, setting the adequate operating reserve levels is one of the main concerns of System Operators (SO). The integration of large shares of wind generation in power systems led to the development of forecasting systems, able to produce probabilistic forecasts, but management tools able to use those forecasts to help making operational decisions are still needed. In this paper, a risk evaluation perspective is used, showing that it is possible to describe the consequences of each possible reserve level through a set of risk indices useful for decision making. Then, decision-aid methods are used for helping the decision maker in setting the operating reserve requirements.