Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Daily Operation of Wind Park Combined with Storage
Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Daily Operation of Wind Park Combined with Storage
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Date
2011
Authors
Hrvoje Keko
Vladimiro Miranda
Mauro Rosa
Jean Sumaili
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Abstract
The inevitable wind power forecast errors result in
differences between forecasted and observed wind power. To
mitigate their economic impact, combining the wind power with
pumped hydro energy storage may be used. In order to deliver a
joint operational strategy for a wind power plant combined with
storage, one requires reliable wind power forecasts. The forecasts
commonly only consist of a single-value forecast (point forecast)
for each look-ahead time. However, additional representative
information concerning the forecast uncertainty may be
required. In this paper, the influence of uncertainty
representation daily operation for a wind power plant combined
with pumped hydro storage is discussed. The paper illustrates
how uncertainty representations such as Gaussian uncorrelated
errors may also not be satisfactory. Based on a case study with a
wind power plant combined with pumped hydro storage, organized for illustrative purposes, the paper demonstrates the need to have uncertainty representation including cross-period dependencies, in order to define a correct operation policy.