Wind Power Forecast with Probability Density Estimation: a Tool for the Business

Abstract

Wind power probabilistic forecasts creates additional value (e.g. economic, environmental) when used in several decision-making problems, such as the electricity market bidding. This presentation will give the attendees insights on a new method for probabilistic wind power forecasting and how its output can be used in decision-making problems. In particular, we will focus on the following topics: - presentation of a new kernel density forecast method applied to the wind power problem; - scientific explanation complemented with insights on how the method's output can be useful for end-users; - evaluation results for a real wind farm located in U.S.A. and comparison with two methods from the state-of-the-art.