Unit commitment based on risk assessment to systems with variable power sources

Abstract

This paper presents the development of a complete methodology for power systems scheduling with highly variable sources based on a risk assessment model. The methodology is tested in a real case study, namely an island with high penetration of renewable energy production. The uncertainty of renewable power production forecasts and load demand are defined by the probability distribution function, which can be a good alternative to the scenarios approach. The production mix chosen for each hour results from the costs associated to the operation risks, such as load shed and renewable production curtailment. The results to a seven days case study allow concluding about the difficulty to achieve a complete robust solution. © 2016 IEEE.