Forecast of the Bidding Curve of Generation Players in the Iberian Electricity Market

Abstract

This paper reports the research that was developed to predict biding curves submitted by generation players to the Market Operator of the Iberian Electricity Market. In this scope, we used a data set based on publicly available information from the website of the Market Operator to develop a two-step ANN prediction model. The first step involves the prediction of the amount of energy bidden at zero price and the second ANN predicts the parameters of the equation of the line that better approximates the remaining bid curve. The tests were done using information of a large generation player but this approach can be replicated to other players so that the individual predicted curves can be composed in order to obtain the aggregated selling curve for each hour of the next day.