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|Title:||Time-adaptive kernel density forecast: a new method for wind power uncertainty modeling|
Ricardo Jorge Bessa
|Abstract:||This paper reports new contributions to the advancement of wind power uncertainty forecasting beyond the current state-of-the-art. A new kernel density forecast (KDF) method applied to the wind power problem is described. The method is based on the Nadaraya-Watson estimator, and a time-adaptive version of the algorithm is also proposed. Results are presented for different case-studies and compared with linear and splines quantile regression.|
|Appears in Collections:||CPES - Indexed Articles in Conferences|
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