Electric vehicle models for evaluating the security of supply

Abstract

The future large-scale deployment of electric vehicles (EV) will not only have impact on load growth, but also create opportunities for the electricity sector. Generally, the current methods for security of supply long-term evaluation do not include this new type of load. While the electric components of the generating systems are usually modelled by the Markov process, this paper presents, as its major contribution, an EV model based on the Nonhomogeneous Poisson process, which has been developed in order to better represent the motorized citizen mobility and the EV opportunity to release spinning reserve to electric systems. The simulation procedure lies in combining both Poisson and Markov processes into a sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS) to measure the impact of EV when evaluating the adequacy of generating systems. This evaluation is divided into two complementary concepts: static reserve (generating capacity reserve) and operating capacity reserve. The proposed models are analyzed using a modified version of the IEEE RTS-96 including renewable sources.