EPREV - A Wind Power Forecasting Tool for Portugal

Abstract

Wind energy experiences in Portugal an increasing interest. About 1700 MW were operating in the end of 2006, in a system with a global capacity of about 12 GW (8.5 GW peak demand). Several new wind farms are under construction and a considerable amount of connection points are or will be granted in the next future. More than 5000 MW are expected to be connected to the grid around 2012, the global generating capacity being then about 16 GW. Clearly, a wind power forecasting system must be implemented meanwhile. A group of wind farm promoters, owning the majority of the capacity installed so far, asked a university and research institutes consortium the development of a forecasting tool, giving rise of the EPREV project, wholly financed by themselves. The system will have the following main characteristics: - Wind speed and active power forecasting up to 72 hours; - Evaluation of the forecasting uncertainty; - Possibility of using the predictions of physical models and the information from the wind farm Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA); - Capacity of predicting only with SCADA information for very short term.

The main components of the system are: - A Human-Machine-Interface, allowing the control of the system, the selection and aggregation of forecasting models and the visualization of results; - A module for the prediction of the wind characteristics; - Power forecasting model for individual wind turbines and for wind farms. A cascade of models is